Random Phenomena

Random phenomena can either be single events or those occurrences that evolve over time in a random fashion. Our lives exhibit these random circumstances on a daily basis. More often than not some fiasco will insert itself into our well laid plans and we must change the final outcome.

How that fiasco, failure, disaster, mess or washout happened is insignificant. What we did with it and how we fiddled with it is significant.

For example, if you have told a lie, some falsehood, some made-up story, an invention or some deception to an acquaintance, friend or family member your outcome will evolve over time. Randomness comes into play.

Initially, you may believe the outcome to be positive. The result of your action, at the time, has smoothed over the rough spot and you are off the hook. But the fib now lives with you, it follows you and may grow. You must always guard against revealing details that may ensnare you in falsehood.

Subjective logic takes uncertainty and belief ownership into account. A fundamental aspect of the human condition is that nobody can ever determine with absolute certainty whether a proposition about the world is true or false. Whether what someone has told them is true or false.

belief is the belief that the specified proposition is true.
disbelief is the belief that the specified proposition is false.
uncertainty is the amount of uncommitted belief.
base rate is the a priori probability in the absence of evidence.

Back to the lie, which does contain some truth. The truth and the lie are fused into one story which is not necessarily a complete fiction.

This is where trust comes in.

Many of us have an uncanny ability to exhibit warmth of emotion even when the underlying fervor is one of suspicion. We don't want to believe our friends or family or leaders are lying to us but there is the nagging indications that they may be. We may especially feel this way if they have lied to us in the past and we have caught them. They may not be aware that we have "caught" them and so they continue to repeat the lie.

We see this happening everywhere. It happens politically, it happens with religions, it happens with social relationships. Any human interaction can be fraught with untruths.

So how does one guard against falling for the "story" or "falsehood" be it religious, political or social?

By shining a light on the falsehood. By calling it out. By creating simple questions that lead to truth.
Guantanamo isn't closed.
We are still in Iraq and Afghanistan.
We still torture.
These issues have not gone away just because the administration changed.
There are still lies that need uncovering and even though many of us have stopped discussing these events they still live and breath in the lies that created them.